Monte Carlo Context Detection

This skill determines which Monte Carlo skill or workflow best fits the user's current context. It activates reactively for ambiguous or multi-step data-related messages, gathers signals, and routes to the right skill or workflow.

Reference file for signal definitions: references/signal-definitions.md (relative to this file). Read it before routing.

When to activate this skill

This skill is activated by the CLAUDE.md routing table when:

• The user's message relates to data quality, alerts, incidents, coverage, or Monte Carlo — but doesn't clearly match a single skill in the routing table
• The user's intent is ambiguous or could span multiple skills
• The user asks a broad question like "help me with my data" or "what's going on?"

When NOT to activate this skill

• A skill or workflow is already active in the conversation — the active skill owns the conversation, do not intercept
• The user's message clearly matches a single skill in the CLAUDE.md routing table — route directly, no need for context detection
• The user is editing a dbt model — defer to the prevent skill which auto-activates via hooks
• The user's message is not data-related at all

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Workflow: Reactive Routing

Session-start welcome is handled by the plugin's welcome SessionStart hook (bash-side dbt/MC workspace detection). This skill is purely reactive — it activates for ambiguous or multi-step data-related messages and routes them.

Follow these steps in order.

Step 0: Fast-path clear intent (stop early if matched)

Before doing anything else, check whether the user's message unambiguously matches a single existing skill. If so, skip the rest of this workflow and immediately load that skill — do NOT read references/signal-definitions.md, do NOT make API probes.

Clear user intent	Skill to load immediately
"Check health of [named table]" / "status of [named table]"	../asset-health/SKILL.md
"Create a [monitor type] on [named table]"	../monitoring-advisor/SKILL.md
"Investigate alert on [named table]" / "why is [named table] stale/broken?"	../incident-response/SKILL.md
"What should I monitor?" / "where are my coverage gaps?"	../proactive-monitoring/SKILL.md

Context-detection is for ambiguous requests only. If the request is clear, routing through this skill wastes turns and tokens.

If no clear match, proceed to Step 1.

Step 1: Categorize intent

Read references/signal-definitions.md for the full signal catalog. Determine which category the user's message falls into:

Category	Signals	Example messages
Specific asset	User mentions a table name, or has a .sql model file open in their IDE	"what's wrong with stg_payments?", "check this table"
Active incident	Keywords: alert, broken, stale, failing, incident, triage, wrong data	"I have alerts firing", "data looks wrong", "something broke"
Coverage/monitoring	Keywords: monitor, coverage, gaps, unmonitored, what should I watch	"what should I monitor?", "where are my gaps?"
General/exploratory	No clear category, broad question	"help me with data quality", "what can Monte Carlo do?"

Step 2: Gather scope (only if needed)

• Specific asset known (from file context or user mention) → proceed to Step 3
• Active incident, no scope → ask: "Want me to check recent alerts? Any specific time range or severity?"
• Coverage/monitoring, no scope → ask: "Which warehouse should I look at, or should I check across all?"
• General/exploratory → present the categories: "I can help with: (1) investigating active alerts or data issues, (2) analyzing monitoring coverage and creating monitors, or (3) checking the health of specific tables. What are you looking for?"

Step 3: Scoped API probe (when scope is available)

Only make API calls when you have enough context to scope them:

• Specific asset → call get_alerts with the table's MCON or name filter, and get_monitors for that table
• Active incident with scope → call get_alerts with the user's time range / severity filters
• Coverage/monitoring → skip API probe, route directly to proactive monitoring workflow (it handles its own API calls)
• If MCP tool calls fail (auth not configured) → skip API, fall back to conversation intent alone

Always scope MCP calls tightly. Unscoped get_alerts, search, or get_monitors on large accounts can return hundreds of results, overflow the tool-result token limit, spill to disk, and force expensive chunk reads — burning user tokens and risking workflow failure. Minimum scoping:

• get_alerts → time filter (created_after, default last 7 days) + at least one of warehouse, table_names, severity
• search → needed to resolve a table name to its MCON (get_table requires MCON). ALWAYS pass limit (e.g. 5), the table name as query, and filter by warehouse_uuid or database/schema. warehouse_types alone ("snowflake") matches thousands of tables. Disambiguation rules when multiple matches return:
  1. If the user named a warehouse (e.g. "analytics-snowflake") → auto-pick the match whose warehouse_display_name matches and proceed. Do NOT stop to ask.
  2. If the user named a database/schema → auto-pick the match in that database/schema.
  3. If one match is flagged is_key_asset: true and others aren't → auto-pick the key asset.
  4. Only ask the user to disambiguate when none of the above resolve it.
• get_monitors → always filter by mcons (table MCON) or warehouse_uuid

If you don't have enough scope, ask the user before calling.

Step 4: Route

Based on the combined signals from Steps 1-3:

Combined signals	Confidence	Action
Active alerts found + incident intent	High	Auto-activate incident response workflow: read and follow ../incident-response/SKILL.md
Coverage intent + data project detected	High	Auto-activate proactive monitoring workflow: read and follow ../proactive-monitoring/SKILL.md
User asks to create a specific monitor (type + table known)	High	Auto-activate monitoring-advisor: read and follow ../monitoring-advisor/SKILL.md
Table mentioned + "health" / "status" / "check" intent	High	Auto-activate asset-health: read and follow ../asset-health/SKILL.md
Ambiguous or conflicting signals	Low	Suggest options and wait for user to choose

High confidence = auto-activate. Load the target skill's SKILL.md and begin executing it immediately. Do not ask for confirmation.

Low confidence = suggest. Present 2-3 options with brief descriptions and let the user choose. Example:

"Based on what you've described, I can:

1. Investigate alerts — triage and fix active data issues (incident response workflow)
2. Improve monitoring — find coverage gaps and create monitors (proactive monitoring workflow)

Which would be most helpful?"

Prevent guardrail

If the user is actively editing a dbt model file (making code changes, not just viewing or asking about it) and the prevent skill's hooks are active, do NOT route to any other skill. Instead respond:

"The prevent skill will automatically handle impact assessment for dbt model changes via its pre-edit hooks. No additional routing needed."