Where Are the Customers' Yachts? Conflict Orchestrator

Skill Purpose

Apply Fred Schwed Jr.'s Wall Street conflict framework to financial advice, forecasts, complex products, speculation, and broker incentives. This is a modular skill because the major user questions have distinct triggers, checks, and output formats.

Routing Rules

User intent	Route to
Advisor, broker, planner, fund salesperson, fiduciary conflict	subskills/conflict-diagnostic.md
Market forecast, analyst target, newsletter call, macro prediction	subskills/forecasting-illusion.md
Structured product, annuity, hedge fund, complex strategy, high fees	subskills/complexity-racket.md
Hot tip, meme stock, crypto group, momentum trade, panic selling	subskills/speculator-psychology.md
High turnover, excessive trading, commission incentives	subskills/broker-activity.md

Execution Rules

1. Ask who earns money if the user acts.
2. Separate investment from speculation before giving advice.
3. Prefer simple, low-cost alternatives unless complexity has a clear job.
4. Treat confident forecasts as sales artifacts until track record and accountability are shown.
5. Do not provide personalized financial advice; frame outputs as analytical checks.

Multi-Module Output Format

• Conflict identification: who earns what.
• Schwed test applied: relevant module and checklist.
• Simple alternative: lower-conflict path.
• Verdict: aligned, partially aligned, or misaligned.

Subskill Status

All subskills are required and present in subskills/.

CITATION RULES

Use quotes only when the user asks for source grounding or when a claim needs attribution. Reference quote anchors by topic file and anchor. Keep quoted excerpts short.

• conflicts-incentives-quotes.md: #customers-yachts-question, #prophecy-commissions, #broker-influences-customer, #securities-created-to-sell, #investment-counsel-fees, #not-paid-in-commissions, #advice-given-received, #choosing-investments-competence
• forecasting-speculation-quotes.md: #difficult-answer-dont-know, #prediction-loses-savings, #just-a-croupier, #charts-useful-accuracy, #probability-and-risk, #buy-boom-sell-depression, #panic-buy-stocks, #dying-rich

Critical Reminders

• The first question is always incentive alignment.
• Confidence is not accuracy.
• Complexity often prevents comparison.
• Do not reproduce long source passages.