Churn Prevention

Purpose

Reduce churn across three stages: before they want to leave (health scoring + proactive outreach), while they're leaving (cancel flow + save offers), and after they've left (win-back campaigns). Plus dunning sequences for involuntary churn from failed payments.

Reads

• brand/audience.md — Personas, pain points, what they value most
• brand/positioning.md — Value props for reinforcement in save offers and win-back copy
• brand/voice-profile.md — Brand voice for all cancel flow and email copy

Brand Integration

• audience.md — Churn signals vary by persona. Power users churn from missing features; casual users churn from confusion. Tailor intervention messaging to the persona's primary motivation.
• positioning.md — Save offers and win-back copy should reinforce the brand's core value proposition, not just offer discounts. Remind users of the specific value they're losing.
• voice-profile.md — Cancel flow copy must match brand voice. A playful brand says 'We'll miss you! Here's what you'll lose...' A professional brand says 'Before you go, here's a summary of your account value.' Win-back emails must sound like the brand, not like a desperate ex.

Workflow

Step 1: Analyze Churn Triggers

Identify and categorize churn drivers:

Voluntary Churn (they chose to leave):

Trigger	Signal	Intervention Window
Not using core feature	<2 logins/week for 2 weeks	Early — usage prompt
Price sensitivity	Viewed pricing page after billing	Pre-renewal — value reinforcement
Missing feature	Feature request + competitor mention	Medium — roadmap update
Poor onboarding	Never completed setup	Immediate — guided help
Support frustration	Multiple tickets, low CSAT	Immediate — escalation
Outgrew the product	Hitting limits frequently	Pre-churn — upgrade path
Champion left	Key user deactivated	Immediate — new champion onboarding

Involuntary Churn (payment failed):

Trigger	Signal	Intervention
Card expired	Payment decline code	Dunning sequence
Insufficient funds	Soft decline	Retry schedule
Card replaced	Hard decline	Update payment prompt
Bank block	Fraud decline	Direct outreach

Step 2: Design Health Score

Define a customer health score (0-100) based on:

Health Score Components:
- Usage frequency (0-25): Logins, feature usage, API calls
- Feature adoption (0-25): % of key features used
- Engagement depth (0-20): Session duration, actions per session
- Support sentiment (0-15): Ticket volume (inverse), CSAT scores
- Account growth (0-15): Seats added, plan upgrades, expansion

Health score thresholds:

• 80-100: Healthy — nurture and expand
• 60-79: Monitor — proactive check-in
• 40-59: At risk — intervention needed
• 0-39: Critical — immediate outreach

Step 3: Design Cancel Flow

The cancel flow is not a wall — it's a conversation. Goal: understand why and offer a genuine solution.

Screen 1: "Before you go..."
|- "What's the main reason you're canceling?"
|   |- Too expensive -> Screen 2A
|   |- Missing features I need -> Screen 2B
|   |- Not using it enough -> Screen 2C
|   |- Switching to another tool -> Screen 2D
|   |- Just need a break -> Screen 2E
|   |- Other -> Screen 2F

Screen 2A (Too expensive):
|- Show usage stats: "You've [achievement] with [Product] this month"
|- Offer: Downgrade to lower plan / Annual discount / Pause billing
|- CTA: "Switch to [cheaper plan] — keep [key features]"
|- Skip: "No thanks, continue canceling"

Screen 2B (Missing features):
|- "Which features would keep you?"
|- Show roadmap items if relevant: "[Feature] ships in [timeframe]"
|- Offer: "We'll notify you when [feature] launches"
|- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2C (Not using it enough):
|- Show quick wins: "Here are 3 things you haven't tried yet"
|- Offer: Pause for 1-3 months instead of canceling
|- Offer: Free onboarding call
|- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2D (Switching to competitor):
|- "Which tool are you switching to?" (optional)
|- Show comparison: "Here's how [Product] compares on [key features]"
|- Offer: Match competitor pricing / free migration assistance
|- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 2E (Need a break):
|- "We get it. Pause your account instead?"
|- Options: Pause 1 month / 2 months / 3 months
|- "Your data and settings stay exactly as they are"
|- Skip: "Cancel instead"

Screen 2F (Other):
|- Open text feedback
|- "Thanks for sharing. Is there anything we can do?"
|- Skip: "Continue canceling"

Screen 3 (Final confirmation):
|- Summary of what they'll lose (specific to their usage)
|- "Your [X] projects and [Y] data will be deleted after 30 days"
|- Final CTA: "Keep my account" (primary) / "Cancel" (secondary, muted)
|- Post-cancel: "Account canceled. You have access until [date]."

Step 4: Build Dunning Sequence

For involuntary churn (failed payments):

Day 0 — Payment Failed (Immediate)

Subject: Action needed — your payment didn't go through

Your latest payment for [Product] didn't process.
This usually happens when a card expires or has insufficient funds.

[Update Payment Method] <- primary CTA

Your account is still active. We'll retry in 3 days.

Day 3 — First Retry Failed

Subject: Your [Product] payment still needs attention

We tried charging your card again but it didn't work.

Quick fixes:
- Update your card: [link]
- Try a different payment method: [link]

Your account stays active for now, but features will be
limited on [date + 7 days] if we can't process payment.

Day 7 — Warning

Subject: Your [Product] account will be limited tomorrow

We haven't been able to process your payment.

Tomorrow your account will switch to limited mode:
- [Feature 1] will be paused
- [Feature 2] will be read-only
- Your data is safe — nothing is deleted

Takes 30 seconds to fix: [Update Payment]

Day 10 — Last Chance

Subject: Last call — update your payment to keep [Product]

Your account is now in limited mode.

You've built [specific: X projects / Y workflows / Z data points]
in [Product]. Update your payment to pick up where you left off.

[Reactivate Now]

If we don't hear from you by [date + 14], your account
will be suspended. Your data is preserved for 60 days.

Day 14 — Account Suspended

Subject: Your [Product] account has been suspended

Your account is suspended due to non-payment.
Your data is safe and preserved for 60 days.

Ready to come back? [Reactivate — takes 30 seconds]

If you meant to cancel, no action needed.
We'll delete your data after [date + 60] for privacy.

Step 5: Create Win-Back Campaign

For users who completed cancellation:

Day 7 Post-Cancel — Soft Check-In

Subject: How's it going without [Product]?

No pitch — just curious how things are going.

If you switched to something else, we'd genuinely love
to know what they do better. Reply to this email anytime.

— [Founder name]

Day 30 Post-Cancel — Value Reminder

Subject: Here's what shipped since you left

A few things we've built since you canceled:
- [Feature 1]: [one-line benefit]
- [Feature 2]: [one-line benefit]
- [Improvement]: [one-line benefit]

[See what's new] — your data is still here if you want to come back.

Day 60 Post-Cancel — Win-Back Offer

Subject: Come back to [Product] — [X]% off for 3 months

We'd love to have you back.

Here's a [X]% discount for your first 3 months back.
Your previous [projects/data/settings] are still saved.

[Reactivate with [X]% off]

Offer expires [date + 14 days].

Day 90 Post-Cancel — Final Reach

Subject: Your [Product] data will be deleted on [date]

Per our privacy policy, we delete account data 90 days
after cancellation.

Want to keep your data? [Reactivate] or [Download your data]

After [date], it's permanently removed.

Retention Metric Frameworks

Track these to measure churn prevention effectiveness:

Metric	Formula	Target
Gross churn rate	Lost MRR / Starting MRR	<5% monthly
Net churn rate	(Lost MRR - Expansion MRR) / Starting MRR	<0% (net negative)
Save rate	Saved cancellations / Total cancel attempts	15-30%
Dunning recovery rate	Recovered payments / Failed payments	50-70%
Win-back rate	Reactivated / Total churned	5-15%
Time to churn	Days from first risk signal to cancellation	Track trend

Output

Each churn prevention build produces:

• Health score model with component weights
• Cancel flow wireframe with copy for every screen and branch
• Dunning email sequence (5 emails with timing)
• Win-back campaign (4 emails with timing)
• Retention metrics dashboard spec
• Proactive intervention playbook per risk signal

Anti-Patterns

• Never hide the cancel button or make it hard to find — this is a dark pattern and may violate FTC rules
• Never guilt-trip users ("You'll lose EVERYTHING!") — state facts about what changes, not emotional manipulation
• Never use threatening language in dunning emails ("Your account will be TERMINATED") — keep the tone helpful
• Never offer discounts to every canceller — this trains users to cancel for discounts; segment by reason and value
• Never skip the cancel confirmation — users must see what they'll lose and confirm intentionally
• Never send win-back emails more than 4 times in 90 days — respect the user's decision

Edge Cases

• Freemium products: No payment to fail, so dunning doesn't apply. Focus on voluntary churn: cancel flow becomes "downgrade to free" flow. Lead with what they keep on free tier.
• Annual billing: Cancel flow should show prorated refund options. Longer save window since they've already paid. Route to customer success more aggressively (higher LTV at stake).
• Regulated industries: Healthcare and finance may have specific data retention and notification requirements. Flag for legal review before implementing data deletion timelines.
• Team/enterprise accounts: Show team impact ("Your 8 team members will lose access"). Require admin role to cancel. Route high-MRR accounts to customer success.

See references/cancel-flow-patterns.md for business-type segmentation and compliance details. See references/dunning-playbook.md for provider-specific setup and smart retry strategies.

Quality Checks

• Cancel flow offers genuine alternatives, not guilt trips
• Dunning emails are helpful, not threatening
• Win-back offers have real value, not desperation discounts
• Health score covers usage, engagement, sentiment, and growth
• All emails have clear single CTA
• Data deletion timeline is clearly communicated
• Pause option available as cancel alternative
• Cancel path is always completable — no dead ends or hidden buttons
• Copy matches brand voice (if voice-profile.md exists)
• Compliance considerations noted (FTC click-to-cancel, GDPR data retention)