Startup Ideation

Scope

Covers

• Turning vague "startup ideas" into structured opportunity theses
• Expanding your information diet to find off-the-beaten-path opportunities
• Running a Why Now analysis based on technology + behavior + distribution shifts
• Identifying tarpits (ideas that look good but are structurally hard) and pruning early
• Scoring ideas and producing a top-idea 1‑pager + 2‑week validation plan

When to use

• "Help me come up with startup ideas in/around <domain>."
• "We have 5 ideas — help us pick one and explain why."
• "What’s a good Why Now for this idea?"
• "Pressure to do AI — where are real new opportunities?"
• "How do we avoid idea tarpits and pick something differentiated?"

When NOT to use

• You already chose an idea and need a delivery-ready PRD (use writing-prds or working-backwards)
• You need to define the problem space for a specific user pain (use problem-definition)
• You need to execute research (recruit, interview, synthesize) rather than frame it (use conducting-user-interviews)
• You need market sizing / pricing / fundraising pitch materials (adjacent work, not covered here)
• You already have a product but it is stuck or growth stalled and you are considering a direction change (use startup-pivoting)
• You have a launched product and need to measure whether you have product-market fit (use measuring-product-market-fit)
• You want to evaluate trade-offs between a small set of known options, not generate new ideas (use evaluating-trade-offs)

Inputs

Minimum required

• Founder/team context + constraints (time, budget, skills, regulatory constraints)
• The decision to make + timeline (e.g., "pick 1 idea to validate in the next 2 weeks")
• Target customer type (B2B/B2C; any preferred industries or segments)
• Any starting ideas (even rough) + what prompted them

Missing-info strategy

• Ask up to 5 questions from references/INTAKE.md.
• If still missing, proceed with explicit assumptions and list Open questions that could change the recommendation.

Outputs (deliverables)

Produce a Startup Ideation Pack in Markdown (in-chat; or as files if the user requests):

1. Context snapshot (goal, constraints, decision, timeline)
2. Unfair advantage + off-the-beaten-path signals (what you know/see that others might not)
3. Shift scan + Why Now candidates (tech/behavior/distribution/regulatory shifts)
4. Opportunity theses table (15–30 ideas, each structured + testable)
5. Tarpit & differentiation check (prune to a shortlist)
6. Idea scorecard (score top 3–5 with evidence)
7. Top idea brief (1‑pager) (clear wedge + Why Now + ICP + risks)
8. 2‑week validation plan (fastest tests for the highest-risk assumptions)
9. Risks / Open questions / Next steps (always included)

Templates: references/TEMPLATES.md
Expanded guidance: references/WORKFLOW.md

Workflow (8 steps)

1) Intake + decision framing

• Inputs: User context; references/INTAKE.md.
• Actions: Clarify decision, time horizon, and constraints. Define success as "pick 1 idea to validate next" (or similar).
• Outputs: Context snapshot.
• Checks: You can restate the decision in one sentence ("We are deciding whether to… by <date>").

2) Inventory unfair advantage + off-the-beaten-path signals

• Inputs: Founder/team background; past work; lived experience; access.
• Actions: List 5–15 unique signals: personal pain, workflows you’ve seen, niche communities, privileged distribution, proprietary data access, or operator insight.
• Outputs: Unfair advantage + signals list.
• Checks: Each signal is specific (who/where/when) and could plausibly lead to a differentiated idea.

3) Run a shift scan ("Why now?" raw material)

• Inputs: Domain + constraints; current trends the user cares about.
• Actions: Generate 10–20 "shifts" across: technology capability, buyer behavior, regulation, distribution, and cost curves. For each, write: "This enables X that was hard before."
• Outputs: Shift scan + Why Now candidates.
• Checks: At least 5 shifts are concrete and falsifiable (not vague hype).

4) Generate opportunity theses (structured ideas)

• Inputs: Signals + shifts.
• Actions: Produce 15–30 opportunity theses using the template: Customer → Job → Pain → Why now → Wedge → First test.
• Outputs: Opportunity theses table.
• Checks: Every idea includes a Why Now statement and a proposed first validation test.

5) Tarpit & differentiation check (prune)

• Inputs: Opportunity theses table.
• Actions: Flag tarpits and thinly differentiated ideas. Apply "off-the-beaten-path" pressure: if an idea is widely discussed, require a strong wedge or discard.
• Outputs: Pruned list + notes on tarpits/differentiation.
• Checks: The remaining shortlist has at least one concrete advantage (distribution, insight, data, speed, regulatory, workflow depth).

6) Score + shortlist top 3–5

• Inputs: Pruned list; references/RUBRIC.md.
• Actions: Score each shortlisted idea with evidence and assumptions. Highlight the 1–2 criteria that dominate the outcome (sensitivity).
• Outputs: Idea scorecard + top 3–5 recommendation.
• Checks: Scores cite specific evidence or clearly labeled assumptions (no hand-wavy numbers).

7) Draft the top idea 1‑pager + 2‑week validation plan

• Inputs: Top idea; references/TEMPLATES.md.
• Actions: Write a crisp 1‑pager (ICP, problem, Why Now, wedge, GTM motion hypothesis). Then design the fastest validation plan focused on the riskiest assumptions.
• Outputs: Top idea brief + validation plan.
• Checks: The plan includes: who to talk to, what to build (if anything), success criteria, and a stop/pivot rule.

8) Quality gate + finalize pack

• Inputs: Full draft pack.
• Actions: Run references/CHECKLISTS.md and score with references/RUBRIC.md. Add Risks / Open questions / Next steps.
• Outputs: Final Startup Ideation Pack.
• Checks: A stakeholder can review async and decide "validate / park / discard" without a meeting.

Anti-patterns (common failure modes)

1. Idea brainstorm without structure: Generating a long list of ideas with no Why-Now analysis, no tarpit check, and no scoring. Volume without evaluation is noise, not ideation.
2. Tarpit blindness: Falling in love with ideas that sound exciting but have well-known structural traps (marketplace cold-start, consumer social network effects, hardware-dependent plays). Always run the tarpit check before shortlisting.
3. Missing founder-market fit: Evaluating ideas purely on market attractiveness without considering the team’s unfair advantages, domain expertise, or distribution access. An objectively good idea is bad if this team cannot win it.
4. Vague Why-Now claims: Citing broad trends ("AI is hot", "remote work is growing") without connecting them to a specific enabling shift that makes this idea possible or necessary now vs. two years ago.
5. Skipping validation design: Producing a polished top-idea brief but no concrete 2-week validation plan, leaving the founder with a thesis but no next action to test it.

Quality gate (required)

• Use references/CHECKLISTS.md and references/RUBRIC.md.
• Always include: Risks, Open questions, Next steps.

Examples

Example 1 (B2B): "We’re ex-operators in logistics. Generate and score startup ideas; pick 1 to validate in 2 weeks." Expected: opportunity theses rooted in real workflows + a shortlist + a top idea 1-pager with a concrete validation plan.

Example 2 (AI shift): "We think new LLM capabilities enable something new in customer support; help us find a differentiated idea and Why Now." Expected: shift scan -> structured theses -> tarpit check -> top idea brief with a tight wedge and clear risks.

Boundary example 1: "Give me 100 startup ideas with no context." Response: ask intake questions first; if the user won’t provide any, produce a small set of generic theses with explicit assumptions and advise on how to ground them in real signals.

Boundary example 2: "Our SaaS product has stalled at 50 customers and we are thinking about changing direction. Help us figure out what to do." Response: this is a pivot decision, not greenfield ideation. Use startup-pivoting to diagnose what is stuck, run an exhaustion check, and evaluate pivot options before generating new ideas.