{"id":"f603722b-e266-49a9-be66-9de8fdecc4e6","shortId":"uNCSrW","kind":"x402","title":"Grok-powered analysis of prediction market price movement catalysts with confidence scoring, paid per call in USDC on Base.","tagline":"Grok-powered analysis of prediction market price movement catalysts with confidence scoring, paid per call in USDC on Base.","description":"The `/api/v1/analyze-move` endpoint is part of the PolyNews Intelligence API, a suite of x402-payable endpoints providing real-time Polymarket and Kalshi prediction market intelligence for autonomous trading agents. This specific endpoint uses Grok AI to analyze a given price movement on a prediction market outcome, identifying the most likely catalyst (e.g., a news event or social media post), assigning a confidence score (0–1), and returning supporting evidence. It costs $0.05 USDC per call on Base, requires no API key or subscription, and settles payment automatically via the x402 micropayment protocol.\n\nCallers supply a `move` object (direction, magnitude, start/end timestamps), the market question, the outcome name that moved, and an array of `nearbyNews` items (typically gathered first via the companion `/api/v1/move-context` endpoint). The response includes a `catalyst` string describing the identified cause, a numeric `confidence` score, and an `evidence` array with supporting references. This endpoint is tagged as \"premium\" tier within the PolyNews API.\n\nThe broader PolyNews API also offers free market discovery and live prices, standard-tier trade feeds and price history, premium Grok-powered market context and daily briefings, and alpha-tier smart money detection, wallet scoring, and cross-platform Polymarket × Kalshi arbitrage. All paid endpoints accept USDC on Base to address `0x6ee49a7872844397Fb52870Cc07b308fFADC9427`. The endpoint returned a valid 402 challenge during probing, confirming it is live.","tags":[],"capabilities":["price-movement-analysis","catalyst-identification","confidence-scoring","grok-ai-analysis","prediction-market-intelligence","x402-micropayment","usdc-on-base","polymarket-data","news-evidence-retrieval"],"categories":["llm","finance","prediction-markets"],"synonyms":["price catalyst analysis","prediction market move explainer","polymarket price movement","grok market analysis","prediction market AI","price spike explanation","market move attribution","event-driven analysis"],"warnings":["The x402 challenge outputSchema defines confidence as type 'string' while the OpenAPI spec defines it as type 'number' — callers should handle both","No actual successful (200) response was captured during probing; response shape is inferred from schema only","The move object schema differs slightly between the OpenAPI spec (direction/magnitude/startTime/endTime) and the x402 challenge outputSchema (timestamp/priceBefore/priceAfter/percentChange) — both formats may be accepted"],"endpointUrl":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move","protocol":"x402","transport":"http","auth":{"type":"x402","details":[{"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","extra":{"name":"USD Coin","version":"2"},"payTo":"0x6ee49a7872844397Fb52870Cc07b308fFADC9427","scheme":"exact","network":"base","mimeType":"application/json","resource":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move","description":"Grok-powered price movement catalyst analysis with confidence scoring","outputSchema":{"input":{"type":"http","method":"POST","bodyType":"json","bodyFields":{"move":{"timestamp":1740003600000,"priceAfter":72,"priceBefore":67,"percentChange":5},"nearbyNews":[],"outcomeName":"Yes","marketQuestion":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"},"discoverable":true},"output":{"type":"object","properties":{"data":{"type":"object","properties":{"analysis":{"type":"string"},"catalyst":{"type":"string"},"confidence":{"type":"string"}}}}}},"maxAmountRequired":"50000","maxTimeoutSeconds":300}]},"qualityScore":"0.880","qualityRationale":"Full OpenAPI 3.1 schema with detailed request/response definitions, live 402 challenge confirmed, clear pricing ($0.05 USDC), and comprehensive docs page. Slightly below 0.9 because no actual successful response example was captured (only the 402 challenge and schema), and the output schema in the challenge uses string type for confidence rather than number as in the OpenAPI 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'/api/v1/move-context':164 '0':106 '0.05':114 '0x6ee49a7872844397fb52870cc07b308ffadc9427':252 '1':107 '402':258 'accept':246 'address':251 'agent':71 'ai':77 'alpha':229 'alpha-ti':228 'also':202 'analysi':4,24 'analyz':79 'api':50,122,197,201 'arbitrag':242 'array':154,183 'assign':102 'automat':129 'autonom':69 'base':20,40,119,249 'brief':226 'broader':199 'call':16,36,117 'caller':135 'catalyst':10,30,93,170 'catalyst-identification' 'caus':175 'challeng':259 'companion':163 'confid':12,32,104,178 'confidence-scoring' 'confirm':262 'context':223 'cost':113 'cross':238 'cross-platform':237 'daili':225 'describ':172 'detect':233 'direct':140 'discoveri':206 'e.g':94 'endpoint':43,57,74,165,188,245,254 'event':97 'event-driven analysis' 'evid':111,182 'feed':214 'first':160 'free':204 'gather':159 'given':81 'grok':2,22,76,220 'grok market analysis' 'grok-ai-analysis' 'grok-pow':1,21,219 'histori':217 'identifi':89,174 'includ':168 'intellig':49,67 'item':157 'kalshi':64,241 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'subscript':125 'suit':52 'suppli':136 'support':110,185 'tag':190 'tier':193,212,230 'time':61 'timestamp':143 'trade':70,213 'typic':158 'usdc':18,38,115,247 'usdc-on-base' 'use':75 'valid':257 'via':130,161 'wallet':234 'within':194 'x402':55,132 'x402-micropayment' 'x402-payable':54","prices":[{"id":"4ee68809-335e-4f09-8a3f-855bc71951cc","listingId":"f603722b-e266-49a9-be66-9de8fdecc4e6","amountUsd":null,"unit":"per_call","nativeCurrency":"USD COIN","nativeAmount":"50000","chain":"base","payTo":"0x6ee49a7872844397Fb52870Cc07b308fFADC9427","paymentMethod":"x402-usd coin","isPrimary":true,"details":{"scheme":"exact","mime_type":"application/json","accepts_all":[{"asset":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","extra":{"name":"USD Coin","version":"2"},"payTo":"0x6ee49a7872844397Fb52870Cc07b308fFADC9427","scheme":"exact","network":"base","mimeType":"application/json","resource":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move","description":"Grok-powered price movement catalyst analysis 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2028"},"discoverable":true},"output":{"type":"object","properties":{"data":{"type":"object","properties":{"analysis":{"type":"string"},"catalyst":{"type":"string"},"confidence":{"type":"string"}}}}}},"maxAmountRequired":"50000","maxTimeoutSeconds":300}],"asset_contract":"0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913","max_timeout_seconds":300},"createdAt":"2026-04-21T18:32:35.470Z"}],"sources":[{"listingId":"f603722b-e266-49a9-be66-9de8fdecc4e6","source":"x402_bazaar","sourceId":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move","sourceUrl":"https://api.cdp.coinbase.com/platform/v2/x402/discovery/resources","isPrimary":true,"firstSeenAt":"2026-04-21T18:32:35.470Z","lastSeenAt":"2026-04-23T14:32:19.302Z"}],"details":{"listingId":"f603722b-e266-49a9-be66-9de8fdecc4e6","quickStartSnippet":"curl -X POST https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move \\\n  -H 'Content-Type: application/json' \\\n  -H 'X-Payment: <x402-payment-proof>' \\\n  -d '{\n    \"marketQuestion\": \"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028\",\n    \"outcomeName\": \"Gavin Newsom\",\n    \"move\": {\"timestamp\":1740003600000,\"priceBefore\":67,\"priceAfter\":72,\"percentChange\":5},\n    \"nearbyNews\": []\n  }'","exampleRequest":{"move":{"timestamp":1740003600000,"priceAfter":72,"priceBefore":67,"percentChange":5},"nearbyNews":[{"url":"https://example.com/article","title":"Newsom announces major policy initiative","publishedAt":"2025-02-19T21:00:00Z"}],"outcomeName":"Gavin Newsom","marketQuestion":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"},"exampleResponse":{"data":{"analysis":"The 5-point price increase from 67¢ to 72¢ on the Gavin Newsom outcome coincides with widespread media coverage of his policy announcement. Multiple news outlets and X accounts amplified the story within the movement window, providing strong temporal correlation.","catalyst":"Newsom's announcement of a major policy initiative aligned with Democratic primary voters, boosting his perceived viability.","confidence":"0.82"}},"schema":{"input":{"type":"http","method":"POST","bodyType":"json","bodyFields":{"move":{"timestamp":1740003600000,"priceAfter":72,"priceBefore":67,"percentChange":5},"nearbyNews":[],"outcomeName":"Yes","marketQuestion":"Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"},"discoverable":true},"output":{"type":"object","properties":{"data":{"type":"object","properties":{"analysis":{"type":"string"},"catalyst":{"type":"string"},"confidence":{"type":"string"}}}}}},"openapiUrl":null,"agentsTxtUrl":null,"citations":[{"claim":"The analyze-move endpoint costs $0.05 USDC per call","source_url":"https://polynews.news/docs"},{"claim":"Endpoint uses Grok AI to identify catalysts with confidence scoring","source_url":"https://polynews.news/docs"},{"claim":"All payments go to 0x6ee49a7872844397Fb52870Cc07b308fFADC9427 on Base","source_url":"https://polynews.news/docs"},{"claim":"The endpoint returned a live 402 challenge with x402Version 1 and maxAmountRequired 50000 (= $0.05 USDC with 6 decimals)","source_url":"https://polynews.news/api/v1/analyze-move"},{"claim":"Required request fields: move, marketQuestion, outcomeName, nearbyNews","source_url":"https://polynews.news/openapi.json"},{"claim":"Response includes catalyst, confidence, and evidence fields","source_url":"https://polynews.news/openapi.json"}],"useCases":["Autonomous trading agents investigating why a Polymarket outcome price spiked or dropped","Post-trade analysis pipelines attributing prediction market movements to specific news events","Alert systems that detect large price moves and automatically explain the catalyst","Research workflows combining move-context news retrieval with AI-powered catalyst attribution","Dashboard backends displaying human-readable explanations for prediction market volatility"],"bestFor":["AI trading agents operating on Polymarket that need automated move explanations","Developers building prediction market analytics dashboards","Autonomous workflows that chain move-context → analyze-move for end-to-end catalyst detection","Teams needing per-call pricing without API keys or subscriptions"],"notFor":["Real-time sub-second trading signals (Grok analysis has latency)","Non-prediction-market price analysis (equities, forex, etc.)","Users who cannot pay in USDC on Base"],"kindDetails":{"x402_version":1,"resource_type":"http","bazaar_last_updated":"2026-03-02T05:39:01.578Z"},"updatedAt":"2026-04-23T14:32:19.302Z"}}