{"id":"28a2a2c0-9533-4c85-90ae-14f582803ce0","shortId":"rJ7jn5","kind":"skill","title":"startup-business-analyst-financial-projections","tagline":"'Create detailed 3-5 year financial model with revenue, costs, cash","description":"# Financial Projections\n\nCreate a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.\n\n## Use this skill when\n\n- Working on financial projections tasks or workflows\n- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections\n\n## Do not use this skill when\n\n- The task is unrelated to financial projections\n- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope\n\n## Instructions\n\n- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.\n- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.\n- Provide actionable steps and verification.\n- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.\n\n## What This Command Does\n\nThis command builds a complete financial model including:\n1. Cohort-based revenue projections\n2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A)\n3. Headcount planning by role\n4. Monthly cash flow analysis\n5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway)\n6. Three-scenario analysis\n\n## Instructions for Claude\n\nWhen this command is invoked, follow these steps:\n\n### Step 1: Gather Model Inputs\n\nAsk the user for essential information:\n\n**Business Model:**\n- Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.)\n- Pricing structure (tiers, average price)\n- Target customer segments\n\n**Starting Point:**\n- Current MRR/ARR (if any)\n- Current customer count\n- Current team size\n- Current cash balance\n\n**Growth Assumptions:**\n- Expected monthly customer acquisition\n- Customer retention/churn rate\n- Average contract value (ACV)\n- Sales cycle length\n\n**Cost Assumptions:**\n- Gross margin or COGS %\n- S&M budget or CAC target\n- Current burn rate (if applicable)\n\n**Funding:**\n- Planned fundraising (amount, timing)\n- Pre/post-money valuation\n\n### Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill\n\nThe startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for:\n- Revenue modeling approaches\n- Cost structure templates\n- Headcount planning guidance\n- Scenario analysis methods\n\n### Step 3: Build Revenue Model\n\n**Use Cohort-Based Approach:**\n\nFor each month, track:\n1. New customers acquired\n2. Existing customers retained (apply churn)\n3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU)\n4. Expansion revenue (upsells)\n\n**Formula:**\n```\nMRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:\n  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion\n```\n\n**Project:**\n- Monthly detail for Year 1-2\n- Quarterly detail for Year 3\n- Annual for Years 4-5\n\n### Step 4: Model Cost Structure\n\nBreak down operating expenses:\n\n**1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**\n- Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed)\n- Payment processing (% of revenue)\n- Variable customer support\n- Third-party services\n\nTarget gross margin:\n- SaaS: 75-85%\n- Marketplace: 60-70%\n- E-commerce: 40-60%\n\n**2. Sales & Marketing (S&M)**\n- Sales team compensation\n- Marketing programs\n- Tools and software\n- Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)\n\n**3. Research & Development (R&D)**\n- Engineering team\n- Product management\n- Design\n- Target: 30-40% of revenue\n\n**4. General & Administrative (G&A)**\n- Executive team\n- Finance, legal, HR\n- Office and facilities\n- Target: 15-25% of revenue\n\n### Step 5: Plan Headcount\n\nCreate role-by-role hiring plan:\n\n**Reference team-composition-analysis skill for:**\n- Roles by stage\n- Compensation benchmarks\n- Hiring velocity assumptions\n\n**For each role:**\n- Title and department\n- Start date (month/quarter)\n- Base salary\n- Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4)\n- Equity grant\n\n**Track departmental ratios:**\n- Engineering: 40-50% of team\n- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%\n- G&A: 10-15%\n- Product/CS: 10-15%\n\n### Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow\n\nMonthly cash flow projection:\n\n```\nBeginning Cash Balance\n+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)\n- Operating Expenses\n- CapEx\n= Ending Cash Balance\n\nMonthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)\nRunway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate\n```\n\n**Include Funding Events:**\n- Timing of raises\n- Amount raised\n- Use of proceeds\n- Impact on cash balance\n\n### Step 7: Compute Key Metrics\n\nCalculate monthly/quarterly:\n\n**Unit Economics:**\n- CAC (S&M spend / new customers)\n- LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate)\n- LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0)\n- CAC payback period (target < 18 months)\n\n**Efficiency Metrics:**\n- Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0\n- Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5\n- Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%\n\n**Cash Metrics:**\n- Monthly burn rate\n- Runway in months\n- Cash efficiency\n\n### Step 8: Create Three Scenarios\n\nBuild conservative, base, and optimistic projections:\n\n**Conservative (P10):**\n- New customers: -30% vs. base\n- Churn: +20% vs. base\n- Pricing: -15% vs. base\n- CAC: +25% vs. base\n\n**Base (P50):**\n- Most likely assumptions\n- Primary planning scenario\n\n**Optimistic (P90):**\n- New customers: +30% vs. base\n- Churn: -20% vs. base\n- Pricing: +15% vs. base\n- CAC: -25% vs. base\n\n### Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report\n\nCreate comprehensive markdown report with tables:\n\n**Section 1: Executive Summary**\n- 3-5 year financial snapshot\n- Key metrics at scale\n- Funding requirements\n\n**Section 2: Model Assumptions**\n- Revenue model and pricing\n- Growth assumptions\n- Cost structure assumptions\n- Headcount plan summary\n\n**Section 3: Revenue Projections**\nMonthly/quarterly tables showing:\n```\n| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |\n|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|\n```\n\n**Section 4: Cost Breakdown**\n```\n| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |\n|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|\n| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |\n| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |\n| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |\n| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |\n```\n\n**Section 5: Headcount Plan**\n```\n| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |\n|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|\n| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |\n```\n\n**Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis**\n```\n| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |\n|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|\n```\n\n**Section 7: Key Metrics**\n```\n| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |\n|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|\n| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |\n| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |\n| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |\n```\n\n**Section 8: Scenario Analysis**\n```\n| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |\n|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|\n| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |\n| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |\n| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |\n```\n\n**Section 9: Funding Requirements**\n- Amount needed\n- Use of proceeds breakdown\n- Milestones to achieve\n- Expected valuation impact\n\n**Section 10: Validation**\n- Sanity checks performed\n- Benchmark comparisons\n- Risk factors\n- Assumptions to monitor\n\n### Step 10: Save Model\n\nOffer to save as markdown file:\n- Suggest filename: `financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md`\n- Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets\n- Provide formulas for key calculations\n\n## Financial Model Best Practices\n\n**Do:**\n- Use cohort-based revenue model\n- Include 3 scenarios\n- Show monthly detail (Year 1-2)\n- Calculate key metrics\n- Validate against benchmarks\n- Document all assumptions\n- Show cash flow and runway\n- Include fundraising milestones\n\n**Don't:**\n- Be overly optimistic on growth\n- Underestimate costs\n- Forget fully-loaded compensation\n- Ignore cash timing\n- Skip scenario analysis\n- Use static headcount\n- Forget to validate\n\n## Integration with Other Commands\n\nPairs well with:\n- `/market-opportunity` - Use SOM for revenue ceiling\n- `/business-case` - Include projections in business case\n\n## Example Usage\n\n```\nUser: /financial-projections\n\nClaude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.\n\nWhat's your business model?\n→ \"B2B SaaS, subscription-based\"\n\nCurrent state?\n→ \"$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash\"\n\nGrowth assumptions?\n→ \"Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV\"\n\n[Claude builds complete model with all sections]\n```\n\n## Notes\n\n- Model building takes 45-90 minutes\n- Results in comprehensive planning tool\n- Update monthly to track vs. actuals\n- Share with investors and board\n- Use for fundraising decks\n- Basis for budget and hiring decisions\n\n## Limitations\n- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.\n- Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.\n- Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are 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