{"id":"81f90f73-f271-4037-bbc2-92ba733cfcb2","shortId":"j5rKE6","kind":"skill","title":"startup-pivoting","tagline":"Decide whether/how to pivot: diagnosis, exhaustion check, pivot options, validation plan.","description":"# Startup Pivoting\n\n## Scope\n\n**Covers**\n- Deciding whether to **pivot vs persevere** when a product/startup is stuck (typically pre- or early-PMF)\n- Turning a pivot debate into an executable **Pivot Decision & Execution Pack** (not vibes)\n- Designing a **time-boxed pivot validation + execution plan** with clear decision gates\n\n**When to use**\n- \"Should we pivot?\"\n- \"We're stuck pre-PMF / growth has stalled.\"\n- \"We think the ICP/market is wrong—help us change direction.\"\n- \"We need a pivot options map and a concrete plan to validate one quickly.\"\n- \"Make a pivot decision memo we can share with the team/investors.\"\n\n**When NOT to use**\n- You don't have a product or real customer evidence yet (do discovery/problem framing first, e.g., `problem-definition`)\n- You only need **incremental optimization** (pricing tests, onboarding tweaks, activation/retention work) and direction is not in question\n- You're choosing between many roadmap bets within an agreed strategy (use `prioritizing-roadmap`)\n- You want the agent to \"pick a new startup idea\" from scratch with no existing product (use `startup-ideation`)\n- You need to measure whether you actually have product-market fit before deciding anything (use `measuring-product-market-fit`)\n- You need a structured comparison of 2-3 known strategic options without the full pivot framework (use `evaluating-trade-offs`)\n\n**Human checkpoint (required)**\n- A pivot is a high-stakes strategic decision. This skill produces decision-ready artifacts and a plan, but a human owner must make the final call.\n\n## Inputs\n\n**Minimum required**\n- What you sell/build today (product summary + current target customer)\n- The \"stuck\" symptoms + evidence (metrics, user feedback, pipeline, retention/churn, qualitative signals)\n- Runway/timebox (months of runway or a decision deadline)\n- Constraints/non-negotiables (compliance, brand/trust, margins, platform, team capabilities)\n- Current \"theory of winning\" (who + problem + why you win)\n\n**Missing-info strategy**\n- Ask up to 5 questions from [references/INTAKE.md](references/INTAKE.md).\n- If answers aren't available, proceed with explicit assumptions and offer 2 scope options (lean 60–90 min analysis vs thorough 1–2 day pack).\n\n## Outputs (deliverables)\n\nProduce a **Pivot Decision & Execution Pack** in Markdown (in-chat; or as files if requested):\n\n1) **Context snapshot** (what's true today; constraints; runway; decision owner)\n2) **Stuck diagnosis** (symptoms → likely causes → evidence gaps)\n3) **Exhaustion check** (\"have we exhausted the possibilities?\") + the last best non-pivot moves (time-boxed)\n4) **Pivot options map** (4P pivot grid + 10% vs 200% classification)\n5) **Chosen pivot thesis** (who/problem/promise) + **success metrics** + **kill criteria**\n6) **Validation plan** (customer learning + experiments; decision gates; what would change your mind)\n7) **Execution plan** (pivot sprint plan; cut list; resourcing; comms; risks)\n8) **Risks / Open questions / Next steps** (always included)\n\nTemplates: [references/TEMPLATES.md](references/TEMPLATES.md)  \nExpanded guidance: [references/WORKFLOW.md](references/WORKFLOW.md)\n\n## Workflow (7 steps)\n\n### 1) Frame the decision (and the clock)\n- **Inputs:** Request + runway/timebox + [references/INTAKE.md](references/INTAKE.md).\n- **Actions:** Define the decision: **pivot vs persevere vs shut down** (or \"pivot A vs pivot B\"). Name the decision owner and the decision date. Capture non-negotiables.\n- **Outputs:** Context snapshot + decision statement.\n- **Checks:** The decision is binary/explicit and time-bounded (no \"let's think about it\").\n\n### 2) Diagnose what's actually \"stuck\"\n- **Inputs:** Metrics, funnel, retention/churn, pipeline, user feedback, win/loss notes.\n- **Actions:** Summarize symptoms and hypothesize causes. Separate **signal** (real demand/value issues) from **execution** (distribution/onboarding/pricing) issues.\n- **Outputs:** Stuck diagnosis + evidence inventory + top evidence gaps.\n- **Checks:** You can state the top 1–3 bottlenecks and what data would falsify them.\n\n### 3) Run the exhaustion check (Butterfield rule)\n- **Inputs:** Stuck diagnosis + constraints + prior attempts.\n- **Actions:** Use [references/TEMPLATES.md](references/TEMPLATES.md) to complete the **Exhaustion Check**: list the most credible non-pivot levers and whether they were tried well. Identify the \"last best\" 1–3 non-pivot moves worth time-boxing (if any).\n- **Outputs:** Exhaustion Check + time-boxed \"last best tries\" plan (or explicit rationale for skipping).\n- **Checks:** If you recommend pivoting, you can explain why remaining non-pivot levers are unlikely/too slow vs runway.\n\n### 4) Generate pivot options (require at least one 200% pivot)\n- **Inputs:** Theory of winning + evidence + constraints.\n- **Actions:** Create 4–8 options using a **4P pivot grid** (Problem, Persona, Product, Positioning/Package). Classify each as ~**10%** (small tweak) vs **200%** (meaningfully different bet). Include at least one 200% option.\n- **Outputs:** Pivot options map with a short \"why this could win\" and \"what would have to be true\".\n- **Checks:** Each option is distinct, falsifiable, and has a plausible path to distribution.\n\n### 5) Select a pivot thesis + metrics + kill criteria\n- **Inputs:** Options map + decision criteria (runway, strengths, market, moat).\n- **Actions:** Pick the best option (or top 2). Write a **Pivot Thesis Card** and define success metrics (North Star + 2–5 leading indicators) plus guardrails. Define kill criteria and a decision gate date.\n- **Outputs:** Pivot thesis + metrics + kill criteria.\n- **Checks:** Metrics are computable; kill criteria are real (not \"keep going until it works\").\n\n### 6) Build the validation + execution plan (Todd Jackson rule)\n- **Inputs:** Pivot thesis + runway + team capacity.\n- **Actions:** Create a time-boxed **pivot sprint**: customer learning plan, experiments, build scope, and what to stop building. Include a comms plan (team/investors/customers) and a rollback/exit plan if results fail.\n- **Outputs:** Validation plan + execution plan (owners, timeline, decision gates).\n- **Checks:** Plan fits runway; includes a cut list; includes at least one \"hard truth\" test that could disconfirm the thesis.\n\n### 7) Quality gate + finalize pack\n- **Inputs:** Full draft pack.\n- **Actions:** Run [references/CHECKLISTS.md](references/CHECKLISTS.md) and score with [references/RUBRIC.md](references/RUBRIC.md). Add **Risks / Open questions / Next steps** and confirm the human checkpoint (decision owner/date).\n- **Outputs:** Final Pivot Decision & Execution Pack.\n- **Checks:** A stakeholder can read it async and understand: (a) why you're pivoting, (b) what you'll do, (c) how you'll know, (d) when you'll decide.\n\n## Anti-patterns (common failure modes)\n\n1. **Pivot-as-panic:** Jumping to a pivot after one bad month without diagnosing whether the problem is execution (onboarding, pricing, distribution) vs. fundamental direction. Always run the exhaustion check before generating pivot options.\n2. **Only 10% pivots:** Generating pivot options that are all minor tweaks (new pricing tier, slightly different ICP) when the evidence suggests a fundamental direction problem. Require at least one 200% pivot to stress-test assumptions.\n3. **Skipping the exhaustion check:** Moving straight to \"what should we pivot to?\" without evaluating whether the current direction has been tested fairly. The Butterfield rule exists to prevent premature abandonment.\n4. **No kill criteria:** Defining a pivot thesis and validation plan but omitting concrete kill criteria and a decision date, leading to indefinite \"testing\" with no commitment to act on results.\n5. **Evidence-free pivot selection:** Choosing a pivot direction based on excitement or trend-chasing rather than evidence from existing customer conversations, usage data, or market signals.\n\n## Quality gate (required)\n- Use [references/CHECKLISTS.md](references/CHECKLISTS.md) and [references/RUBRIC.md](references/RUBRIC.md).\n- Always include: **Risks**, **Open questions**, **Next steps**.\n\n## Examples\n\n**Example 1 (B2B SaaS stuck pre-PMF):** \"We built an AI support copilot for SMBs. Trials convert, but retention is poor and sales cycles are long. We have 6 months of runway. Should we pivot, and if so how?\"\nExpected: a Pivot Decision & Execution Pack with an exhaustion check (pricing/onboarding/ICP), 4-8 pivot options including at least one 200% pivot, a chosen thesis with metrics/kill criteria, and a 4-6 week pivot sprint plan.\n\n**Example 2 (Consumer plateau):** \"Our language learning app growth stalled and D30 retention is low. We suspect our promise is wrong. Create a pivot options map and a validation plan.\"\nExpected: a 4P pivot grid that includes positioning/package changes and at least one new persona/problem angle, plus a time-boxed validation plan with decision gates.\n\n**Boundary example 1:** \"Just tell us what to pivot to -- no metrics, no customers, no constraints.\"\nResponse: explain that pivoting without evidence is guesswork; ask 3-5 intake questions, propose a discovery/validation sprint, and only then produce a pivot thesis and plan.\n\n**Boundary example 2:** \"We do not have a product yet but we want to explore startup ideas in the health-tech space.\"\nResponse: this is greenfield ideation, not a pivot. Use `startup-ideation` to generate and evaluate opportunity theses; come back to `startup-pivoting` once you have a product and evidence of what is or is not working.","tags":["startup","pivoting","lenny","skills","plus","liqiongyu","agent-skills","ai-agents","automation","claude","codex","prompt-engineering"],"capabilities":["skill","source-liqiongyu","skill-startup-pivoting","topic-agent-skills","topic-ai-agents","topic-automation","topic-claude","topic-codex","topic-prompt-engineering","topic-refoundai","topic-skillpack"],"categories":["lenny_skills_plus"],"synonyms":[],"warnings":[],"endpointUrl":"https://skills.sh/liqiongyu/lenny_skills_plus/startup-pivoting","protocol":"skill","transport":"skills-sh","auth":{"type":"none","details":{"cli":"npx skills add liqiongyu/lenny_skills_plus","source_repo":"https://github.com/liqiongyu/lenny_skills_plus","install_from":"skills.sh"}},"qualityScore":"0.474","qualityRationale":"deterministic score 0.47 from registry signals: · indexed on 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