{"id":"641290e2-57c6-4fc7-85c1-fb5766464b02","shortId":"bYHZ5R","kind":"skill","title":"define-hypothesis","tagline":"Defines a testable hypothesis with clear success metrics and validation approach. Use when forming assumptions to test, designing experiments, or aligning team on what success looks like.","description":"<!-- PM-Skills | https://github.com/product-on-purpose/pm-skills | Apache 2.0 -->\n# Hypothesis\n\nA hypothesis is a testable prediction about how a change will affect user behavior or business outcomes. It transforms assumptions into explicit statements that can be validated or invalidated through experimentation. Well-formed hypotheses prevent teams from building features based on untested beliefs and create shared understanding of what success looks like.\n\n## When to Use\n\n- After problem framing, before committing to a solution\n- When designing experiments or A/B tests\n- When team members have differing assumptions about user behavior\n- Before investing significant engineering resources in a feature\n- When pivoting direction and need to validate the new approach\n\n## Instructions\n\nWhen asked to create a hypothesis, follow these steps:\n\n1. **State the Belief**\n   Articulate what you believe will happen. Use the structured format: \"We believe that [action/change] for [target user] will [expected outcome].\" Be specific about the intervention . vague hypotheses can't be tested.\n\n2. **Identify the Target User**\n   Define who this hypothesis applies to. A hypothesis about \"users\" is too broad. Specify the segment: new users in their first week, power users with 10+ sessions, churned users returning, etc.\n\n3. **Define the Expected Outcome**\n   What behavior change or result do you expect? Frame it in terms of user actions (complete onboarding, make a purchase, return within 7 days) rather than internal metrics when possible.\n\n4. **Set Success Metrics**\n   Choose a primary metric that directly measures the expected outcome. Include secondary metrics that provide context and guardrail metrics that ensure you're not causing harm elsewhere.\n\n5. **Describe Validation Approach**\n   How will you test this hypothesis? A/B test, user interviews, prototype testing, cohort analysis? Be specific about sample size, duration, and statistical requirements.\n\n6. **Document Risks and Assumptions**\n   What could invalidate this hypothesis beyond the test results? What are you assuming to be true that you haven't validated?\n\n## Output Format\n\nUse the template in `references/TEMPLATE.md` to structure the output.\n\n## Quality Checklist\n\nBefore finalizing, verify:\n\n- [ ] Hypothesis is falsifiable (possible to prove wrong)\n- [ ] Success metric has a specific numeric target\n- [ ] Target user segment is clearly defined\n- [ ] Validation approach is practical and time-bound\n- [ ] Pass/fail criteria are unambiguous\n- [ ] Hypothesis doesn't assume the solution works\n\n## Examples\n\nSee `references/EXAMPLE.md` for a completed 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chars)","verified":false,"liveness":"unknown","lastLivenessCheck":null,"agentReviews":{"count":0,"score_avg":null,"cost_usd_avg":null,"success_rate":null,"latency_p50_ms":null,"narrative_summary":null,"summary_updated_at":null},"enrichmentModel":"deterministic:skill-github:v1","enrichmentVersion":1,"enrichedAt":"2026-05-02T12:54:10.837Z","embedding":null,"createdAt":"2026-04-18T22:09:05.567Z","updatedAt":"2026-05-02T12:54:10.837Z","lastSeenAt":"2026-05-02T12:54:10.837Z","tsv":"'1':139 '10':204 '2':174 '3':210 '4':245 '5':276 '6':303 '7':237 'a/b':100,286 'action':229 'action/change':156 'affect':43 'align':24 'analysi':293 'appli':183 'approach':14,128,279,366 'articul':143 'ask':131 'assum':320,380 'assumpt':18,51,107,307 'base':72 'behavior':45,110,216 'belief':75,142 'believ':146,154 'beyond':313 'bound':372 'broad':191 'build':70 'busi':47 'caus':273 'chang':41,217 'checklist':341 'choos':249 'churn':206 'clear':9,363 'cohort':292 'commit':92 'complet':230,389 'context':264 'could':309 'creat':77,133 'criteria':374 'day':238 'defin':2,4,179,211,364 'define-hypothesi':1 'describ':277 'design':21,97 'differ':106 'direct':121,254 'document':304 'doesn':378 'durat':299 'elsewher':275 'engin':114 'ensur':269 'etc':209 'exampl':384,390 'expect':161,213,222,257 'experi':22,98 'experiment':62 'explicit':53 'falsifi':347 'featur':71,118 'final':343 'first':199 'follow':136 'form':17,65 'format':152,330 'frame':90,223 'guardrail':266 'happen':148 'harm':274 'haven':326 'hypothes':66,169 'hypothesi':3,7,31,33,135,182,186,285,312,345,377 'identifi':175 'includ':259 'instruct':129 'intern':241 'intervent':167 'interview':289 'invalid':60,310 'invest':112 'like':30,84 'look':29,83 'make':232 'measur':255 'member':104 'metric':11,242,248,252,261,267,353 'need':123 'new':127,195 'numer':357 'onboard':231 'outcom':48,162,214,258 'output':329,339 'pass/fail':373 'pivot':120 'possibl':244,348 'power':201 'practic':368 'predict':37 'prevent':67 'primari':251 'problem':89 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