{"id":"bd77dd7e-8c54-4c56-8d3e-6813d4d14212","shortId":"S28KDd","kind":"skill","title":"investing-from-darwin","tagline":"Applies Darwinian evolutionary principles to long-term stock investing: reject dangerous businesses (Type I errors), screen by historical ROCE, assess multi-level robustness, read honest vs. dishonest signals, and hold quality companies with extreme patience. Trigger: 'evaluate t","description":"# Investing From Darwin\n\nA framework for permanent ownership of high-quality businesses, derived from Pulak Prasad's *What I Learned About Investing from Darwin* (2023). Nalanda Capital's investment philosophy — managing $5B+ in Indian equities with 20%+ annualized returns — distilled into five evolutionary lenses.\n\n## Core Philosophy\n\n> \"We want to be permanent owners of high-quality businesses.\"\n\nThree pillars, mirroring Darwinian survival strategy:\n1. **Avoid Big Risks** — be a great rejector (Section I)\n2. **Buy High Quality at a Fair Price** — use ROCE + robustness + honest signals (Section II)\n3. **Don't Be Lazy — Be Very Lazy** — buy rarely, hold forever (Section III)\n\n---\n\n## Dimension 1: Avoid Big Risks (The Great Rejector)\n\n**Evolutionary parallel:** Animals minimize Type I errors (errors of commission) at the cost of Type II errors (errors of omission). Deer flee when uncertain. Cheetahs skip prey they can't safely kill.\n\n**Agent instruction:** When asked to evaluate whether to invest in or avoid a company, first apply the rejection checklist. Flag any of these as automatic disqualifiers. The goal is to identify what NOT to own before asking what to own.\n\n### Automatic Rejection Criteria\n- **Governance problems:** History of fraud, related-party abuse, misleading disclosures, or controlling shareholders with a reputation for cheating minority investors\n- **Turnaround stories:** Businesses described as \"being fixed\" or \"recovering\" — a bad business with a brilliant manager remains a bad business\n- **High leverage:** Debt-to-equity above 0.5–1.0x (industry-dependent); any business where interest consumes significant operating profit\n- **Fast-changing industry:** Technology shifts, regulatory disruption, or platform risk that could make the business obsolete within a decade\n- **Acquisition-hungry management:** Serial acquirers, especially large transformative deals funded with debt\n- **Concentrated customer/supplier base:** Top 3 customers >50% of revenue = pricing power held by counterparty\n- **Complex, opaque businesses:** Conglomerates, financial companies with hidden leverage, businesses requiring trust in management forecasts\n\n**Key insight:** Reducing Type I errors (bad investments) by 10 percentage points improves portfolio performance by ~16 pp. Reducing Type II errors by the same amount improves performance by only ~3 pp. **Rejection skill is worth 5x discovery skill.**\n\n---\n\n## Dimension 2: ROCE as the Single Filter\n\n**Evolutionary parallel:** Dmitri Belyaev's Siberian fox experiment — select for one trait (tameness), get correlated beneficial traits for free. High historical ROCE is the single trait that cascades into all signs of business quality.\n\n**Agent instruction:** Use historical ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) as the primary screen. ROCE = EBIT ÷ Capital Employed. Look for 10+ years of data. Target threshold: consistently ≥20% ROCE. Reject businesses where ROCE is below cost of capital (<10–12%) or highly volatile.\n\n### Why ROCE, Not Other Metrics\n| Metric | Problem |\n|--------|---------|\n| Great management | Unmeasurable; interview performance is a dishonest signal |\n| Revenue growth | Hides poor unit economics (dot-com era, leveraged growth) |\n| Net margin | Misses capital efficiency (Costco 3% margin beats Tiffany 19% on ROCE) |\n| ROE | Distorted by leverage and tax optimization; hides operating weakness |\n| DCF | Requires future assumptions that no one can reliably make |\n\n**ROCE cascade:** A business sustaining high ROCE over a decade almost certainly has: strong competitive advantage, pricing power over customers, bargaining power over suppliers, disciplined management, and durable economics.\n\n### Historical vs. Projected\n- Use **historical** financials only — 10-year minimum; 15–20 years preferred\n- Never rely on analyst projections or management guidance for buy decisions\n- Ask: \"Has this business delivered high ROCE?\" not \"Will it?\"\n\n---\n\n## Dimension 3: Robustness Assessment\n\n**Evolutionary parallel:** Organic life survives not by being strong but by being robust at multiple levels. Neutral mutations allow evolution without disrupting current functioning.\n\n**Agent instruction:** After ROCE screening, assess multi-level robustness. A robust business can withstand shocks and evolve through \"neutral strategies\" (experiments that don't threaten the core).\n\n### Robustness Checklist\n| Dimension | Fragile | Robust |\n|-----------|---------|--------|\n| ROCE trend | Declining or volatile | Stable or rising ≥20% |\n| Leverage | Debt/equity >1× | Zero or minimal debt |\n| Customer concentration | Top 3 >50% revenue | Fragmented customer base |\n| Supplier concentration | Dependent on 1–2 key suppliers | Fragmented supplier base |\n| Industry pace | Fast-changing (tech, media) | Slow-changing (consumer staples, industrials) |\n| Management stability | Frequent CEO changes | Long-tenured, founder-mentality team |\n| Competitive position | Losing market share | Gaining or stable market share |\n\n**Neutral strategy test:** When a business considers expansion (new product, new geography, acquisition), ask: \"If this fails, does it threaten the core?\" If yes → risky, avoid. If no → neutral strategy, acceptable calculated risk.\n\n---\n\n## Dimension 4: Honest vs. Dishonest Signals\n\n**Evolutionary parallel:** Zahavi's handicap principle — signals that are costly to fake are honest (guppy coloration, peacock tail). Signals that are cheap to produce are dishonest (fiddler crab's regenerated claw).\n\n**Agent instruction:** When evaluating information about a company, classify signals as honest or dishonest. Weight honest signals heavily; ignore or discount dishonest ones.\n\n### Dishonest Signals (Ignore or Discount)\n- Press releases and investor relations communications\n- Management meeting impressions (\"they talk so well!\")\n- Analyst target prices and consensus ratings\n- Single-quarter earnings beats/misses\n- Awards, ESG ratings, and CEO charisma\n- Guidance and forward projections of any kind\n\n### Honest Signals (Trust and Study)\n- **Long-term ROCE trend** (10+ years): Costly to sustain without genuine competitive advantage\n- **Market share trend**: Consistently gaining share = genuine differentiation\n- **Free cash flow generation**: Actual cash; impossible to fake over a decade\n- **Balance sheet quality**: Zero debt reveals management conservatism\n- **Dividend history**: Sustained or growing dividends over 10+ years\n- **Customer retention**: High switching costs are revealed by repeat behavior\n\n---\n\n## Dimension 5: Extreme Patience (GKPI — Good Karma, Patience, Inertia)\n\n**Evolutionary parallel:** Punctuated equilibrium (Gould & Eldredge) — species remain in stable stasis for millions of years, punctuated by brief rapid change. Investment windows are punctuation events.\n\n**Agent instruction:** Apply GKPI when deciding whether to buy, hold, or sell. Default to inaction. Buy only during punctuation events (price dislocation). Sell only for fundamental deterioration — never for valuation reasons.\n\n### When to Buy\n- A high-ROCE, robust business becomes temporarily mispriced\n- Punctuation event: market panic, sector rotation, short-term earnings miss, macro fear\n- These windows are rare (1–2% of holding period)\n- **When the window opens: buy a lot, not a little**\n\n### When to Sell (Only Three Triggers)\n1. **Governance deterioration**: Evidence of fraud or minority shareholder abuse\n2. **Egregious capital misallocation**: Large debt-funded acquisitions in unrelated industries\n3. **Irreparable business damage**: Sustained market share loss (3+ years), ROCE collapse\n\n**Never sell on valuation alone.** Maximum loss is capped at investment amount; maximum gain is unlimited. Asymmetry favors holding quality.\n\n---\n\n## Query Response Framework\n\n### For \"Should I invest in [Company X]?\"\n1. **Rejection screen** (Dim 1): Does it fail any automatic rejection criterion? → If yes, stop.\n2. **ROCE filter** (Dim 2): 10-year ROCE history. Consistently ≥20%? → If no, stop.\n3. **Robustness audit** (Dim 3): Score all 7 robustness dimensions. Majority robust?\n4. **Signal audit** (Dim 4): List 3 honest and 3 dishonest signals present.\n5. **GKPI context** (Dim 5): Is this a punctuation event (rare price dislocation)?\n6. **Verdict**: Present as Avoid / Monitor / Buy on Dip / Buy Now, with primary reasoning.\n\n### For \"Should I sell [Company X]?\"\n1. Apply the three sell triggers only. Does any apply? → If none, default to hold.\n2. Distinguish: Is the concern a dishonest signal (noise) or an honest signal (trend)?\n3. Remind: Asymmetry favors holding — maximum loss is capped, maximum gain is not.\n\n### For \"Is this a good business / industry?\"\n- Translate to historical ROCE: Does the 10-year track record confirm the moat claim?\n- Apply market share trend as corroborating evidence.\n- Assess industry pace: slow-changing = investable; fast-changing = avoid.\n\n---\n\n## Output Format\n\nFor investment evaluations, structure responses as:\n\n**[Company Name] — Darwin Investment Assessment**\n\n**Rejection Screen:** Pass / Fail (list any triggers)\n**ROCE Filter:** [X]% median 10-yr ROCE — Pass / Conditional / Fail\n**Robustness Score:** [X/7 dimensions robust] — key strengths and vulnerabilities\n**Signal Analysis:** Honest signals pointing to [quality/risk]; dishonest signals to ignore\n**GKPI Verdict:** [Avoid / Monitor / Buy on Dip / Buy Now] — [1-sentence rationale]\n\nKeep the tone direct. Acknowledge uncertainty. Never provide a price target or DCF.","tags":["investing","from","darwin","book2skills","simbajigege","agent-skills","agentskills","anthropic","anthropic-claude","growth-investing","investing-skills","skills"],"capabilities":["skill","source-simbajigege","skill-investing-from-darwin","topic-agent-skills","topic-agentskills","topic-anthropic","topic-anthropic-claude","topic-book2skills","topic-growth-investing","topic-investing","topic-investing-skills","topic-skills","topic-stock-analysis"],"categories":["book2skills"],"synonyms":[],"warnings":[],"endpointUrl":"https://skills.sh/simbajigege/book2skills/investing-from-darwin","protocol":"skill","transport":"skills-sh","auth":{"type":"none","details":{"cli":"npx skills add simbajigege/book2skills","source_repo":"https://github.com/simbajigege/book2skills","install_from":"skills.sh"}},"qualityScore":"0.468","qualityRationale":"deterministic score 0.47 from registry signals: · indexed on github topic:agent-skills · 36 github stars · 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