{"id":"ef862f52-38e2-41bf-aab7-302f7a65da1b","shortId":"ANhcPh","kind":"skill","title":"progressive-estimation","tagline":"Estimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work with research-backed PERT statistics and calibration feedback loops","description":"# Progressive Estimation\n\nEstimate AI-assisted and hybrid human+agent development work using research-backed formulas with PERT statistics, confidence bands, and calibration feedback loops.\n\n## Overview\n\nProgressive Estimation adapts to your team's working mode — human-only, hybrid, or agent-first — applying the right velocity model and multipliers for each. It produces statistical estimates rather than gut feelings.\n\n## When to Use This Skill\n\n- Estimating development tasks where AI agents handle part of the work\n- Sprint planning with hybrid human+agent teams\n- Batch sizing a backlog (handles 5 or 500 issues)\n- Staffing and capacity planning with agent multipliers\n- Release date forecasting with confidence intervals\n\n## How It Works\n\n1. **Mode Detection** — Determines if the team works human-only, hybrid, or agent-first\n2. **Task Classification** — Categorizes by size (XS–XL), complexity, and risk\n3. **Formula Application** — Applies research-backed multipliers grounded in empirical studies\n4. **PERT Calculation** — Produces expected values using three-point estimation\n5. **Confidence Bands** — Generates P50, P75, P90 intervals\n6. **Output Formatting** — Formats for Linear, JIRA, ClickUp, GitHub Issues, Monday, or GitLab\n7. **Calibration** — Feeds back actuals to improve future estimates\n\n## Examples\n\n**Single task:**\n> \"Estimate building a REST API with authentication using Claude Code\"\n\n**Batch mode:**\n> \"Estimate these 12 JIRA tickets for our next sprint\"\n\n**With context:**\n> \"We have 3 developers using AI agents for ~60% of implementation. Estimate this feature.\"\n\n## Best Practices\n\n- Start with a single task to calibrate before moving to batch mode\n- Feed back actual completion times to improve the calibration system\n- Use \"instant mode\" for quick T-shirt sizing without full PERT analysis\n- Be explicit about team composition and agent usage percentage\n\n## Common Pitfalls\n\n- **Problem:** Overconfident estimates\n  **Solution:** Use P75 or P90 for commitments, not P50\n\n- **Problem:** Missing context\n  **Solution:** The skill asks clarifying questions — provide team size and agent usage\n\n- **Problem:** Stale calibration\n  **Solution:** Re-calibrate when team composition or tooling changes significantly\n\n## Related Skills\n\n- `@sprint-planning` - Sprint planning and backlog management\n- `@project-management` - General project management workflows\n- `@capacity-planning` - Team velocity and capacity planning\n\n## Additional Resources\n\n- [Source Repository](https://github.com/Enreign/progressive-estimation)\n- [Installation Guide](https://github.com/Enreign/progressive-estimation/blob/main/INSTALLATION.md)\n- [Research References](https://github.com/Enreign/progressive-estimation/tree/main/references)\n\n## Limitations\n- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.\n- Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.\n- Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are 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