{"id":"b0435bab-9ff8-4ffc-ac7f-ad13716478a8","shortId":"64NMjX","kind":"skill","title":"startup-business-analyst-market-opportunity","tagline":"'Generate comprehensive market opportunity analysis with TAM/SAM/SOM","description":"# Market Opportunity Analysis\n\nGenerate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.\n\n## Use this skill when\n\n- Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows\n- Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis\n\n## Do not use this skill when\n\n- The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis\n- You need a different domain or tool outside this scope\n\n## Instructions\n\n- Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.\n- Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.\n- Provide actionable steps and verification.\n- If detailed examples are required, open `resources/implementation-playbook.md`.\n\n## What This Command Does\n\nThis command guides through an interactive market sizing process to:\n1. Define the target market and customer segments\n2. Gather relevant market data\n3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology\n4. Validate with top-down analysis\n5. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters\n6. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity)\n7. Present findings in a formatted report\n\n## Instructions for Claude\n\nWhen this command is invoked, follow these steps:\n\n### Step 1: Gather Context\n\nAsk the user for essential information:\n- **Product/Service Description:** What problem is being solved?\n- **Target Customers:** Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography)\n- **Business Model:** How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.)\n- **Stage:** What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A)\n- **Geography:** Initial target market (US, North America, Global)\n\n### Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill\n\nThe market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for:\n- Bottom-up calculation frameworks\n- Top-down validation approaches\n- Industry-specific templates\n- Data source recommendations\n\n### Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis\n\n**For B2B/SaaS:**\n1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case)\n2. Estimate number of companies in each segment\n3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment\n4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)\n\n**For Consumer/Marketplace:**\n1. Define target user demographics\n2. Estimate total addressable users\n3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU)\n4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency\n\n**For Transactions/E-commerce:**\n1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV)\n2. Determine take rate or margin\n3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate\n\n### Step 4: Gather Market Data\n\nUse available tools to research:\n- **WebSearch:** Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data\n- **Cite all sources** with URLs and publication dates\n- **Document assumptions** clearly\n\nRecommended data sources (from skill):\n- Government data (Census, BLS)\n- Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista)\n- Public company filings (10-K reports)\n- Trade associations\n- Academic research\n\n### Step 5: Top-Down Validation\n\nValidate bottom-up calculation:\n1. Find total market category size from research\n2. Apply geographic filters\n3. Apply segment/product filters\n4. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)\n\nIf variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.\n\n### Step 6: Calculate SAM\n\nApply realistic filters to narrow TAM:\n- **Geographic:** Regions actually serviceable\n- **Product Capability:** Features needed to serve\n- **Market Readiness:** Customers ready to adopt\n- **Addressable Switching:** Can reach and convert\n\nFormula:\n```\nSAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %\n```\n\n### Step 7: Estimate SOM\n\nCalculate realistic obtainable market share:\n\n**Conservative Approach (Recommended):**\n- Year 3: 2-3% of SAM\n- Year 5: 4-6% of SAM\n\n**Consider:**\n- Competitive intensity\n- Available resources (funding, team)\n- Go-to-market effectiveness\n- Differentiation strength\n\n### Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report\n\nGenerate a comprehensive markdown report with:\n\n**Section 1: Executive Summary**\n- Market opportunity in one paragraph\n- TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers\n\n**Section 2: Market Definition**\n- Problem being solved\n- Target customer profile\n- Geographic scope\n- Time horizon\n\n**Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis**\n- Customer segment breakdown\n- Segment sizing with sources\n- TAM calculation with formula\n- Assumptions documented\n\n**Section 4: Top-Down Validation**\n- Industry category and size\n- Filter application\n- Validated TAM\n- Comparison to bottom-up\n\n**Section 5: SAM Calculation**\n- Filters applied with rationale\n- SAM formula and result\n- Segment-level breakdown\n\n**Section 6: SOM Projection**\n- Market share assumptions\n- Year 3 and Year 5 estimates\n- Customer count implications\n- Revenue projections\n\n**Section 7: Market Growth**\n- Industry growth rate (CAGR)\n- Key growth drivers\n- 5-year market evolution\n\n**Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks**\n- Public company comparisons\n- Customer count validation\n- Competitive context\n\n**Section 9: Investment Thesis**\n- Market opportunity assessment\n- Key positives and risks\n- Venture-scale potential\n- Next steps\n\n### Step 9: Save Report\n\nOffer to save the report as a markdown file:\n- Suggest filename: `market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md`\n- Use Write tool to create file\n- Confirm file location with user\n\n## Tips for Best Results\n\n**Do:**\n- Start with bottom-up (most credible)\n- Always triangulate with top-down\n- Cite all data sources\n- Document every assumption\n- Be conservative on SOM\n- Compare to public company benchmarks\n- Explain any data gaps or limitations\n\n**Don't:**\n- Rely solely on top-down\n- Cherry-pick optimistic data\n- Claim >10% SOM without strong justification\n- Mix methodologies inappropriately\n- Ignore competitive context\n- Skip validation steps\n\n## Example Usage\n\n```\nUser: /market-opportunity\n\nClaude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.\n\nWhat product or service are you analyzing?\n→ \"AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies\"\n\nWho are your target customers?\n→ \"E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America\"\n\nWhat's your pricing model?\n→ \"Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month\"\n\n[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]\n```\n\n## Integration with Other Commands\n\nThis command pairs well with:\n- `/financial-projections` - Use SOM to build revenue model\n- `/business-case` - Include market sizing in business case\n\n## Notes\n\n- Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis\n- Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations\n- Update annually as market evolves\n- Conservative estimates build credibility with investors\n\n## Limitations\n- Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.\n- Do 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